We shall hold together - Ukraine

2022 marked the start of the war in Ukraine. In march Putin started one of the biggest wars in Europe in decades. 2022 will be the year that historians for decades to come will write books on why it happened. We're not here to answer that because it is not needed for now. The question is what happens next and for that we need to realize and appreciate something. Many did not believe that we would be writing about the continuing war in Ukraine starting 2023.

Ukraine was expected to fall when they heard the News about Russian soldiers attacking the Donbas and Kiev. UK military experts said that Kiev would not be able to defend itself against the might of the Russian army. Whilst old and not the most effective army in the world, it is by far still feared and was respected. But now it seems that the bear's roar is worse than its bite. The attack on Kiev was met with heavy resistance and the Russians just stumbled and fell, being uncoordinated and with a lack of supplies. The attack on the East of Ukraine became fixed battles on certain cities. The Russians were mostly either taking heavy casualties or even having to stop attacking.

America, Europe and arguably the world couldn't believe it, but was relieved that this had happened. Putin has made a mess of this war. And Ukraine is going to fight until it wins. This is important for 2023 for two reasons, firstly it is to understand why Ukraine is winning now and what Russia may or may not do to stop it. Secondly, it is to understand the position of Putin, what will he do. There are two main scenarios here. Zelensky has been clear that no peace deal will be reached unless every inch of land taken by Putin has been returned to Ukraine, meaning it is unlikely that the Ukrainians will seek peace with what they have. Putin needs land in Ukraine, even if it is just a fraction of what he wanted, if he is to stay alive as Russia's president.

I don't envisage a Russian victory, without drastic measures. It would take a black Swan to appear out of the sky to coordinate the Russian Army, supply them, pay them and push them into Ukraine far enough that they take Kiev and Eastern Ukraine. Especially as Europe has shown that they will put aside any differences to defeat the common enemy and help Ukraine do that. Not to mention the Russian economy can only hold out for so long, and that might not be enough to outlast the war.

The first scenario is that the Russian army gets itself together. They have an injection of men, they regroup, change strategy and hold their positions and maybe even win a few battles and take a bit of land. In this scenario it's a stalemate. The Ukrainiqns cannot push because of Russian defenses but then the Russians are unable to attack Ukraine as Ukraine is well defended and well stocked to fight the Russians out, not to mention many in the army are considering what happened and are apprehensive to merely be a second of many waves. This option is the trickiest. Both sides like in a game of chess move their pieces trying to undermine the other side's position and drag out the time until the other side gives up. It would be a long war for Ukraine and Russia and a measure of stamina for Ukrainian Troops and Putin's power

The second scenario is a Ukrainian victory. In this scenario the Ukrainians completely kick out the Russian army out of Ukraine and even if Crimea stays under Russian control, Kiev will be lined with people in celebration. But this will be the most tense moment of the war, this will be when Putin is at his most dangerous. It is clear from Putin's years in office that he will do anything to stay in power, and this will be no exception. There is very little to know what Putin will do. He has the motto, "punch first" referring to his tough life growing up in St Petersburg or as it was called then, Leningrad. Rather than accept defeat which Putin has not done, he will fight more. There is a chance he will use nuclear weapons, he might just be as brutal to Ukraine and Europe as he can such as completely cutting off gas supplies or blocking Ukrainian grain exports. Either way soldiers when in desperate straits lose the sense of fear. If there is no place of refuge, they will stand firm. No different is Putin.

Regardless of these two scenarios there is one thing for sure, the feeling in Kiev is of hope. Hope that the millions of people who fled with their lives at stake may one day come home again to see their loved ones. Hope that people and children will not live in fear of planes flying above their homes. Hope that they can live as normal life as life will permit. I'm Moscow there is fear and shame. Shame that under Putin Russia has done such an act to the world and even more shame at how their army which they are very proud of has been ordered by donkeys. Fear because there is little knowing what Putin or his colleagues are planning.

The world stands shoulder to shoulder next to Ukraine, as a Jewish man fights for his country against a dictator. It is poetic, but it is reality. This year will see scares and uncertainties. But we must continue standing shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine for a loss for Ukraine is a loss for freedom. Historians might define this as a turning point in world history, where to, we don't know, but a new era in the 21st century is taking place and by far the hardest is yet to come because after the fighting, after the bloodshed and tears, healing will have to take place, an all inclusive healing to heal whatever Putin did to anyone.